According to data, since mid-204, oil prices and the U.S. dollar have only moved in opposite directions for about half of the time. In other words, in the past 4 years, crude oil prices and the US dollar index have basically not formed a negative correlation for quite some tBuy crude oil contractsime.
Behind the narrowing of the spread, it is naturally inseparable from traders' crazy arbitrage trading. The changes in fundamentals have given these eye-catching spread arbitrageurs a breakthrough. Data released by the ICE European Futures Exchange showed that Brent crude oil futures for August delivery fell by $8 to $74 on Monday. The WTI crude oil futures for delivery in August were the exact opposite, rising by $0.6 to $674 per barrel. The total trading volume is almost three times the 00-day average of crude oil trading volume.
In short, in spot crude oil investment, the follow-up mainstream profit will not be bad, so why is it said that there is a certain difference between the 0-20 million capital and the 5-0 capital approach, and the larger the capital, the more the approach will be Inconsistent, even deviation from the operation method may occur. Because the original is different, the quality is different. Everyone should understand this truth.
The new supply of crude oil released by the shale oil boom has helped drive down prices, benefiting consumers around the world. It boosted the U.S. economy, created tens of thousands of jobs, improved U.S. energy security, established new international relations, and gave Washington new freedom in using sanctions as a tool of strategic influence.
However, Trump’s purpose may be more than that, because OPEC itself has a heavy responsibility due to the production reduction agreement. At this time, how can OPEC have more spare capacity to take care of Iran’s supply gap? And there is a country that has sufficient crude oil supply. That is the United States. If the United States fills the gap in Iran’s crude oil supply, isn’t it just right? Someone will definitely ask, isn’t it meaningless that the US sanctions on the one hand caused Iran’s supply gap, and on the other hand it helped Iran to close the gap.
Part of Qatar’s power is preparing to use all of its poweBuy crude oil contractsr to increase crude oil production. Rosneft, Russia's largest oil company, issued a statement on Friday, claiming that OPEC's previous restrictions on crude oil supply have maintained market balance.
Another option is to require countries with surplus production capacity to fill the gap left by Venezuela and other countries in difficulty. According to this arrangement, the daily increase in oil production may be closer to 0 million barrels. However, these countries are also prepared to make up for Iran's reduced output after the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement and imposed sanctions on Iran again.
The demand for distillates has pushed up the demand for overall crude oil. Morgan Stanley believes that this effect alone is enough to push Brent oil prices to $85/barrel and $90/barrel at the end of 209 and 2020 respectively. The demand for middle distillates has been strong because they have become fuels for airplanes, trains, and heavy machinery. Due to the strong growth of the global economy, these fuels have been used more all over the world.
From a short-term perspective, the demand for crude oil will further increase in the next few months and curb supply growth, which will push oil prices up further. Rising oil revenues will promote faster economic growth in oil-producing countries, increase domestic fuel consumption, and further lead to tight oil markets. Rising oil prices and production will also increase fuel consumption within the oil industry in drilling, refining, transportation, and the entire supply chain. In addition, rising oil prices and output are generally related to tighter markets and rising costs, such as labor, raw materials, and engineering and service contracts. The government that controls resources will take the opportunity to raise taxes and royalties, and increase the additional revenue from rising oil prices. As the price of oil rises, oil-producing countries can achieve their income targets only by maintaining production unchanged without increasing production. Therefore, in the short term, oil production may be slow to respond to rising oil prices, and consumption will be stronger than expected, increasing the pressure on prices.