Last Friday, a source said that European Central Bank policymakers reached an agreement to end QE this yearU.S. crude oil pipeline project. The latest Bloomberg survey shows that the Eurozone CPI growth rate may have reached the fastest level since the beginning of 207, which makes the European Central Bank's determination to end bond purchases this year even more firm.
Analysts believe that there is a high possibility that Trump will not abandon sanctions, but they are divided on the impact of sanctions on Iran’s crude oil exports and global oil prices. Iran’s oil supply may be reduced by zero to 0 million barrels per day, and crude oil prices will fluctuate by US$2/barrel to US$0/barrel. However, some people believe that the market’s concerns may be excessive, because Iran’s largest oil customers are India and South Korea.
However, the current macro environment is completely different from the previous two oil price surges. my country's demographic dividend has disappeared, the financial cycle has turned, the growth rate of housing prices has slowed, and the downward pressure on economic growth has increased. From a micro point of view, tight credit leads to an increase in credit risk. Judging from the financial data of bond-issuing companies, comparing the data of 20020 and 207, the company's leverage ratio is rising, while the yield is falling, and the interest coverage ratio has also dropped from 4 times to twice. From the perspective of the number of defaults, economic growth was relatively good in 2007 and 20 years, and there were no cases of default. The interest rate hikes at that time were acceptable to companies and would not cause systemic risks. However, as the problem of overcapacity caused by the upward financial cycle has become prominent, credit bond defaults have occurred since 4 years, and the risk has risen sharply in 208 years.
The only hope for the crude oil market right now is that at the upcoming OPEC meeting, OPEC will release some news that is good for crude oil. A few days ago, it was reported that OPEC would not mention production increase related content at this meeting, which gave crude oil prices a glimmer of light. , Perhaps this meeting will become the key and hope for the market after crude oil.
When the price hits the resistance level or the support level fails, it usually returns to its original value range with all its strength. The longer the time period of the reference point being hit, the wider the return range. This is due to the concept of market balance. At this point, you need to be quick to react and turn your gun head to fight back.
The main reason for the sharp drop in oil prices was the increase in crude oil production in oil-producing countries including OPEC, Russia,U.S. crude oil pipeline project and the United States. According to a report released by OPEC, last month's output even exceeded the initial level of the 206 production reduction for the first time, and it is still rising. Russia's crude oil production hit 500,000 barrels a day. U.S. crude oil production is also around 600,000 barrels per day.
Kwangrae said that as oil prices approach the 20-day moving average, technical signals are rebounding; and until OPEC's meeting later this month provides more details on its next move, it will continue to see oil price fluctuations.
In January, Saudi Arabia, the leader of OPEC, was reported to be considering leaving the group. Because the King Abdullah Petroleum Research Center, the top Saudi think tank funded by the Saudi government, was discussing the consequences of disbanding OPEC.